Crypto is an unproductive bubble

Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by chasil on Friday March 18, 2022 @11:06PM (#30730566)

I want you to pay attention to this very carefully:

https://www.openssh.com/releasenotes.html

  * ssh(1), sshd(8): add the [email protected] hybrid
   ECDH/x25519 + Streamlined NTRU Prime post-quantum KEX to the
   default KEXAlgorithms list (after the ECDH methods but before the
   prime-group DH ones). The next release of OpenSSH is likely to
   make this key exchange the default method.

There is a non-zero probability that a quantum computer can break these key exchanges.

This might not require a full application of Shor's algorithm, as studies continue with statistics from quantum annealers.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2021/06/07/q-day-i...

If this happens, cryptocurrency as currently designed collapses.

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Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by 8organicbits on Saturday March 19, 2022 @01:15AM (#30731287)

I think this is a question of algorithm agility. Bitcoin has a mechanism to change its implementation[1], so it's possible to upgrade.

On the mining side, miners would pick a new algorithm, vote, and then cut over when approved. Although, if a post-quantum technique allowed faster mining, a change to the mining algorithm may not be needed. Bitcoin would notice the faster hashrate and increase the difficulty, miners would rush to buy quantum hardware. As long as quantum hardware is generally available for purchase, we'd still have decentralized mining.

On the wallet side, we'd need miners to vote for and approve quantum safe wallet operations. Users would need to update their software and their wallets. I'd expect some stuck wallets (like the initial blocks, lost keys) could get spent. This is sort of like someone recovering gold from a sunken ship.

I agree this seems like an existential threat, but there is an update path. Unless there's a sudden onset where no-one has time to react, I suspect the miners would reach consensus. Some users may be slow to update their wallets, and may suffer losses.

I think we'd eventually see recovery of the coins from the mining of the initial blocks, which are generally believed to lost/stuck. This would sort of be like recovery of gold from a sunken ship. I've heard that recovery of those coins would destabilize Bitcoin value, due to the large value. However, unless they are all unexpectedly recovered at once, I'd expect the market to "price that in" gradually as recovery begins.

I'd expect many cryptocurrencies not to survive the transition, although I'm a crypto skeptic and I don't expect hype/scam coins to survive anyway.

[1] https://blog.coinbase.com/bitcoin-s-elegant-upgrade-mechanis...

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Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by chasil on Saturday March 19, 2022 @01:19AM (#30731312)

I hope so. Your perspective seems sound.

One thing seems certain, waiting for NIST is folly.

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Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by delecti on Friday March 18, 2022 @11:18PM (#30730632)

Doesn't quantum computing render most cryptographic security obsolete? I'm a cryptocurrency skeptic, but I've been under the impression that quantum computing is just as much a concern for traditional banking as for cryptocurrencies.

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Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by chasil on Friday March 18, 2022 @11:30PM (#30730702)

A quantum computer is most effective with key exchanges, at cracking the "discrete logarithm problem." It is not as effective with symmetric ciphers and hashes.

https://stribika.github.io/2015/01/04/secure-secure-shell.ht...

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Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by chasil on Friday March 18, 2022 @11:21PM (#30730648)

This is further complicated with what is happening at NIST, with NTRU-Prime:

https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/post-quantum-cryptography/rou...

"Formal complaint regarding 8 June 2021 incident - 2021.06.15, Daniel J. Bernstein

"Executive summary. A week ago Dr. Daniel Apon from NIST publicly accused me of professional misconduct. Specifically, he accused me of initiating private contact with NIST so as to provide false information to NIST regarding the timing of an upcoming announcement relevant to NIST’s ongoing decisions..."

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