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Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by godelski on Friday March 18, 2022 @08:59PM (#30729745)
I think what a lot of people miss is that cryptocurrencies are different than blockchains. But also that cryptocurrencies can both work exactly like modern money (opposed to cash) but that this system is still new (e.g. DeFi: Decentralized Finance). Not only can you do smart contract escrows, but there's nothing stopping anyone from doing DeFi and having the exact same functionality as a credit card. You can also take out loans. You can invest. You can have clawbacks and credit lines. All that already exists in DeFi. Though there are also other people that think crypto/bc can work without a judicial system in place. Maybe, but probably not. Tech doesn't solve everything nor can it. People are also "solving" problems that aren't problems with tech (or creating new ones). But that's an age old story and not limited to cryptocurrencies.

There's also other things that even make it attractive for governments and financial institutions. E.g. you can use transaction fees as a form of consumption tax (especially valuable if you're the world's reserve currency or that of a major area). Through a country cryptocurrency you could set a federal consumption tax (providing a new and difficult to avoid revenue stream), give everyone free access to banking (wallets), make buying treasury bonds trivial, and other modern things that most of us take for granted but not everyone has access to (5.4% of Americans are unbanked). This would have the potential to simplify taxes but could equally complicate them. Hell, the Fed Reserve could pre-mine coins (for fast transactions and low environmental impact) and even offer interest on wallets through POS. These things could be beneficial.

Also one thing that makes it attractive to governments is that you have the ability to track every transaction, making it a data rich environment. This is an extreme authoritarian route although could make for simple return free filing and "stop terrorists and criminals" (I'm not bullish on that). Though personally I hope it doesn't go this route and we have ZKP transactions (i.e. anonymous like cash). Personally I don't think the gov should see that grandma gave me lunch money. Most cryptocurrencies aren't anonymous/private (not what the crypto stands for), despite what is common belief. I, unfortunately, think that this is a big reason large financial institutions and governments are interested.

But definitely agree on this being full of speculation and uncertainty. There are also plenty of people creating scams and abusing the systems. But just because a big part of the ecosystem is corrupt doesn't mean the underlying technology is useless. To determine that we'll have to wait and see, but there has been shown at least the potential for utility. I'm not trying to say that cryptocurrencies are going to be the future. I'm just also saying that there's reasons that smart people are attracted to the idea other than scams. But that also doesn't mean the ideas will work out.

Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by dmitriid on Saturday March 19, 2022 @03:08AM (#30731822)
> 5.4% of Americans are unbanked

Did you even look at why they are unbanked?

--- start quote [1] [2] ---

According to the Federal Reserve data, 14% of households making less than $40,000 are unbanked, compared to only 3% of households making more than that amount.

...

“Don’t have enough money to meet minimum balance requirements” was cited by 29.0 percent of unbanked households as the main reason for not having an account—the most cited main reason

--- end quote ---

But sure. Do tell me how magical crypto that expects you to pay wildly fluctuating fees for every single transaction is going to save the unbanked.

Cue in "not all cryptocurrencies in 3... 2... 1..."

[1] https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/costs-of-being-unbank...

Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by dist1ll on Friday March 18, 2022 @09:13PM (#30729855)
Yup, hit the nail on the head.

A related thing that's bonkers to me is how much progress there has been in ZK cryptography.

But people just dismiss the field, saying "ZK existed since the 80s it's a fad", and post yet another Bruce Schneier article.

Re:Crypto is an unproductive bubble by godelski on Friday March 18, 2022 @09:29PM (#30729966)
ZKPs are actually one of the "spin-offs" I've been really excited about. The hype in CC/BC has caused more funding and research into that area. It really has been a recent golden era for cryptography. We have services like Signal and Matrix becoming popular (making cryptographic communication simple) and privacy is being taken seriously. Makes sense that people want to do the same with money/transactions.

But also, to be clear, it is hard to separate the signal from the noise. Especially with hyped subjects like CC/BC.