Obviously we don't know everything going on in the Kremlin, but it does appear that Putin to some degree believed his own bullshit. The the overwhelming force of the Russian Army would knock aside the Ukrainian forces without too much difficulty; that they would even give up and switch sides. He underestimated Zelensky's ability to rally support, and the extent to which the West was willing to forego access to Russian oil and gas. He assumed China would help him withstand Western sanctions, but so far that remains to be seen. Xie obviously doesn't care about Ukraine, democracy, or any of that stuff. But he isn't going to stick his neck out if he thinks it goes against China's interests.