The likelihood of Apple giving Sprint an exclusive to their newest device this late in the game (ie, they're not an unknown quantity like they were in 2007) is highly unlikely.

Where one to entertain this crazy notion though the reasoning could center around Sprint's WiMAX deployment and the iPhone 5's need for higher bandwidth. Should the much rumored "Assistant" feature of the new iPhone require a bigger pipe to the Internet to function, then this could be plausible.

Yet in the end, why? Apple has only expanded their supported carriers since 2007. Centering on Sprint in the hope of forcing the hand of AT&T and Verizon in the US is a fools errand. They would be effectively shrinking the market they worked so hard to expand into. Seems nuts.

The Sprint exclusivity would probably be a short period, like 6 months. Apple could milk payola money from Sprint. Sprint could sell AT&T and Verizon switchers new contracts. 6 months later, Apple lets AT&T and Verizon release iPhone 5s to soak up any cheapskates that want to upgrade but did not want to break their AT&T and Verizon contracts.

Were one... gah.

If Apple made the iphone5 a Sprint exclusive, it would be unavailable to every single one of their existing customers. Literally...Every...Single...One.

There's a better chance that Tim Cook will eat an iPhone than announce a Sprint exclusive.

I'm out of contract on AT&T with a 3GS. The exclusive 5 on Sprint would be available and very attractive to me. Granted, that doesn't make it a good idea, but going exclusive with Sprint doesn't eliminate EVERY current iphone owner from upgrading.

Customers are loyal to the iPhone, not the network it runs on.

I left Sprint to get an iPhone. If I need to rejoin Sprint to get the next iPhone, that's no problem.

Yah, exactly. Most of the people I know still in contract with AT&T are waiting to jump ship to whatever carrier will have the iPhone 5. My gf and I are both a year in on our iPhone 4 contracts with AT&T and we have no problem dumping them.

You have to figure how much is your time really worth?! All the AT&T network b.s. (esp in San Francisco & NYC) that we've had to deal with costs me and my gf much more than the cancellation fee ever will. That said, the cancellation fee is still a load of crap.

I wonder how true this is outside techies. I'm personally network-agnostic, as I only use my "phone" for data and calls from the wife. I use about 100 minutes a month, so it doesn't matter.

My wife, however, makes at least 60 minutes of calls on more days than not, keeping in touch with friends and family (basically all the social lubrication I do with email and Google+). For her, the network effect is incredibly strong: all her friends and family are on Verizon, so she is very hesitant to switch as she gets the in-network minutes free. It was a huge deal for her when I announced I wanted to leave Verizon (for a Virgin Mobile Android) and how many minutes that would add to her plan.

I think a lot of people are loyal to their network not because of what they get from it, but about the people they know on it.

> For her, the network effect is incredibly strong: all her friends and family are on Verizon, so she is very hesitant to switch as she gets the in-network minutes free.

Sprint has unlimited mobile to mobile for plans with data, so as long as the other person is on a mobile line (probable since they are on Verizon), the call is free.

This is where iMessage and FaceTime, GoogleVoice (via unlimited data), MagicJack and other such services step in to forge the link.

I wouldn't say that customers are exclusively device-loyal and network-agnostic. The convenience of using the same device can be outweighed by frustration over the network's coverage, downtime, etc. Everyone has different breaking points, but I guarantee that if you couldn't get reliable service where you spend most of your time, you'd strongly consider a different device!

... in the USA. But yes, seems unlikely.

There are rumors of a 4S, though, with the upgraded A5 inside an iPhone 4 form factor. Which, in such a situation (and I agree it's not likely), could go to the other carriers and make the 5 a Sprint exclusive.

(Again, doubtful, but it would address that problem.)

The customers on AT&T & Verizon would still get an iPhone 4S with many of the iPhone5 features.

I can believe this story. Apple spins it that Sprint is ready now, AT&T and Verizon need to get their LTE networks ready. It'll be a very public push. Apple has never shied away from telling their "partners" exactly how annoyed they are at [X] facet of their business.

If this did happen, I'm not sure what the knock-on effect for Sprint is. Anyone who wants an iPhone has one. The Verizon thing is over. All those people are locked into contracts. I don't think we'll see lines out the door on release morning for iPhone 5 and Sprint.

The AT&T 3gs crowd joined in June 2009, and many of them (myself included) are just out of contract and waiting to upgrade to the new phone. I think there's plenty of demand, especially if its not an ATT or verizon

I'm up for renewal and its perfect timing with my move to Bay in a month (and the crappy 3G coverage AT&T has there).

I'll early-term my contract to get away from AT&T. A new iPhone rev would be gravy.

I could also see it as retaliation for dropping all non-unlimited texting plans after iMessage was announced, or for changing iPads from unlimited data to 2 GB/month shortly after release.

I know a few people still on the 3GS, out of contract, and looking for an upgrade. If the iPhone 5 came out on another carrier (especially with an unlimited plan), they'd be happy to jump ship.

I believe you underestimate the general level of discontent with AT&T and Verizon.

All those millions of people who bought the 3GS when it was released are now at the end of their 2 year contract so it's a perfect time for Sprint to make a play for them. If they discount the upfront price of the iPhone, offer unlimited data, and $50/month service lots of people are going to jump.

God yes, I love my 3gs, but its long in the tooth now.

Just give me a decent amount of minutes I'll never use, maybe 4-5g data/mon with no tethering and unlimited texts for something close to what the Europeans get service for. If carriers want to play price war, its about damn time. AT&T and Verizon aren't going to play that ball unless someone blinks.

That seems very unlikely, although it would certainly make me consider switching to Sprint (after doing lots of research into their network quality in my area, etc.).

Their stock (which I unfortunately hold a bit of) dropped over 10% today. If that's the case, I hope they announce it rather than let the speculation continue.

Meh, they're in great company today.

It's completely ridiculous. 30 million iPhones over 4 years is about half the rate at which AT&T is currently selling iPhones in the US. Why would Apple give exclusivity to a lagging carrier in exchange for a promise to purchase phones at only half the rate that one of their current partners is selling them?

It seems likely to me that Sprint made this commitment in order to get access to the iPhone at all. But an exclusive on their network makes no sense at all for the relatively small deal (from Apple's perspective) being described here.

I wouldn't say it's ridiculous, given that:

- It may not possible to produce an LTE iPhone 5 for either Verizon or AT&T right how (or for any other country), as the LTE chipsets are not ready and LTE deployments are limited. However, it may be possible in six to nine months.

- WiMAX chipsets may be more mature than LTE, and Sprint's LTE deployment may be widespread, making it possible to produce such a phone for Sprint.

- Sprint has promised to buy 7.5 million iPhones a year, which is a whopping 31% of US iPhone sales

- The depth of the Sprint commitment effectively means there is no room for Android on that carrier.

So, if Apple's choices are:

a) Produce non-LTE phone for AT&T and Verizon, only to obsolete it six months later in order to compete with LTE phones running Android.

b) Give Sprint temporary six to nine month "exclusivity" to a phone that they could not produce for anyone else anyway in return for 30% more U.S. sales and killing Android on Sprint

... then it's plausible for them to choose b.

Yes, but WIMAX is pretty much dead, even Sprint's dropping it for LTE. I just don't see Apple producing a new phone with WiMAX and having to test a completely different radio technology when they pretty much know it won't last for more than a few years.

There are several LTE phones out already, and Verizon is rapidly expanding coverage zones. Although, I suppose battery drain is the unresolved issue.