EU will continue for now, but there's a significant push to move away from Russian gas in many European countries in the next year or two. And if Russia takes over all of Ukraine, I expect sanctions to target energy as well. If they target oil, Putin has threatened to shut off European access to gas - we will see if that's a bluff or not.

> EU will continue for now, but there's a significant push to move away from Russian gas in many European countries in the next year or two.

the question is if those countries will have strong commitment to invest into significant and non-trivial infrastructure rebuild, or it will be just speeches from politicians.

> Russia takes over all of Ukraine

I don't think this was ever goal of Russia. I think they wanted to occupy some southern and eastern regions, force Ukraine to recognize Russian Crimea and set some puppet government in Kyiv.

I believe Ukraine and Russia will reach some agreement soon, Ukraine will likely lose some territory and political independence, and in 3 years Europeans will mostly forget about this stuff, will be destructed by other issues and continue buying Russian oil and gas.

> and set some puppet government in Kyiv

That's what I meant by taking over all of Ukraine. If Russia sets up a puppet government, then I expect further sanctions. Maybe they won't if a settlement is reached with the current government.