> > But in his view, the air force’s passivity could also reflect inexperience or incompetence. > Where is the line between "objectively assessing an enemy's weaknesses" and "blatant wishfull thinking" ?

Everyone expected the much, much larger Russian Air Force to establish air superiority in Ukraine within days, even hours.

When an organization systematically failed to be able to perform even its basic activities for no obvious reason, organizational incompetence is almost certain.