Outsourcing has existed for a long time already but it has shown its limitations. But a lot of developers need to understand the company and its processes really well. You can't just hire somebody and expect them to contribute much. It takes time. I am in a regulated industry and it takes people years to really understand the processes.

It's unlikely to happen because of how much of the work is contextual and that it's generally a constant demand.

Most gig work is context-free and on-demand. Pick up person at X spot and take them to Y spot. Pick up food from X and take to Y. You don't need to understand why, or how this fits into the rest of the person's evening/week/month.

Wages might go down, but I'd be surprised if something like Upwork overturned the software development market.

Upwork

Gig work is great for easily defined, repeatable tasks. Uber is going from point A to point B. This is something done for a long point of human history, and can be easily optimized through maps and routing algorithms. General software development can be more murky, because usually:

1. The person writing the requirements doesn't fully understand what's needed from an eng perspective 2. They need someone to describe tradeoffs of eng approaches 3. They'll probably need custom changes due to shifting business or client needs 4. They might need someone to guide them on a better framework or eng setup for their project

Being able to actually complete a task well, on time or faster will get you a premium (it can be really hard to find). Being able to assist on a consulting side on top of that is very valuable and rare. I think the people who are really good on Upwork often get hired outright by contractors with more money or get higher paying side gigs (or they are outsourcing their work to other devs).

Basically, you work on upwork for company X full-time but are paid on hourly basis and without any overtime or benefits.

This is what the article alludes to. So called "gig" workers at uber are constrained, the flexibility is an illusion. You are forced to comply and work a hard schedule or you will be punished by the algorithms.

So as a developer you are more likely to be average than exceptional, because the field has been commodified by the learn2code movement and bootcamps and therefore you are at the whim of the employer and dont have any flexibility. They can replace you in a heartbeat.

Yes, after two years we can take our relationship off UpWork.

no, i'm thinking more the like of toptal who i am seeing increasingly more and more.

i don't know their business model exactly but what i do know is that companies are increasingly seeing web dev as a commodity or to use the expression "code monkey" work.

something to be outsourced, get people to work unpaid overtime.

The difference between a good web developer (80th percentile?) and a median one is much greater than the difference between a good driver and a median one. And the inputs and outputs can be fuzzier. And bad output in tech lasts longer than the negative effects of a bad ride. That’s why it’s harder to hire anonymously like via an app.

I agree but just like uber it's not really "gig" work. You're essentially working full-time and even more (unpaid overtime) but you're classified as an independent contractor so you don't have any benefits or security under the false guise of "flexibility".

I'm getting lots of clients via UpWork. I'm never going back to full-time 9-5.