The risk for financial collapse is definitely >0, especially since 2/3 of Russia reserve is frozen abroad and unavailable to keep the banks afloat in case of a crisis.

Oil and gas exports have slowed down a lot too, so few foreign currencies are coming in.

China will need to play it finely to stay out of trouble with the west (which is a way bigger market for them). If they do business, I see them keeping every chain of production in their country and selling only end products, which mean a massive brain drain and the loss of cutting-edge industries for Russia.

I don't have a lot of experience on this topic but to me, it looks like a hard blow on short, medium, and long term with a high risk of an economic collapse.

Also, generally speaking: Russia isn’t a partner for China; they just happened to have some common interests. China simply buy out Russia for peanuts, they are already buying Russian oil at price lower than it costs Russia to extract it. China won’t put their sales to the West at risk, Russian market isn’t worth it.

Yes, there will be an option to use cracked software etc. Not a good substitute when you cannot get proper support, localization etc.

Russian supremacists will view this even as a victory, no more degrading western influence. Most people, however, will have a different opinion even if not allowed to state it openly. They simply will not be happy about their limited choices.

The second part – Europe is seriously thinking about divesting from gas and oil and Germany may keep old nuclear plants running. There is space for more sanctions.