Re:Deep learning is hitting a wall?
by Georgelemental on Thursday March 10, 2022 @12:22AM
(#30623484)
And there have already been hiccups in reliability from some of that renewable ramp-up. Solar and wind can't guarantee output, and the storage technology just doesn't exist yet, so for now there is a hard cap on how much more % solar/wind we can go without serious reliability issues.
Re:Deep learning is hitting a wall?
by asdfasgasdgasdg on Thursday March 10, 2022 @12:31AM
(#30623539)
I'm not aware of such hiccoughs. Could you please provide some examples that are specifically traceable to renewables? I mean excluding cases of general underprovisioning where renewables happen to be part of the energy mix -- this has been happening since before renewables were big and I reckon it will keep happening.
As far as the hard cap you mentioned, I think there's no danger of us hitting that cap in the next decade or so. Later on, maybe. Battery technology is also improving rapidly, so perhaps it will never be a true limiting factor.
There is no hard cap because you can always grow and burn ethanol. Brazil does it at scale.
Which leads to deforestation, the depletion of ground water supplies and still produces CO2 on both then front end and back end. Renewables aren't interesting just because they are renewable. We're not going to run out of fossils today so burning something else instead makes no sense. Especially when it becomes a form of geewnwashing to cover for a lack of progress in wind and solar.
In the UK there is around 1.4 GW installed battery storage capacity and a further 20GW+ in the pipeline. The technology does exist and is mass producible and scaleable. Hiccups in supply are usually more complex than just blaming a single source. It is the responsibility of the grid to maintain supply across different types of generator.
We are actually doing that, though. Across the globe, the fraction of energy generated by non-renewables has been falling consistently for more than a decade. We went from being less than 5% solar + wind a decade ago to more than 10% now, and the trend is accelerating. By 2026 we're expected to be nearing 20% of all power generation renewable. Things aren't going fast, but infrastructure doesn't go fast, and no proponent of renewable energy expected it to.
I think this is in no way comparable to the symbolic learning thing where there is no sign of relative progress.