Re:Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is thei...
by nullifidian on Tuesday March 08, 2022 @08:26AM
(#30599603)
Vladivostok/Primorsky Krai is ethnically Russian though. If Russia ceases to exist as a mutli-ethnic empire, it would unlikely be the part that breaks off.
Re:Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is thei...
by inglor_cz on Tuesday March 08, 2022 @08:31AM
(#30599649)
There are many Chinese citizens present in Vladivostok.
I guess that a potential takeover of the territory would look more like the takeover of Tibet in 1950. A fait accompli executed on a very short timeline.
Re:Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is thei...
by nullifidian on Tuesday March 08, 2022 @08:47AM
(#30599786)
How many? One thousand? Two thousand? According to the 2010 census there were 2446 ethnic Chinese individuals, right behind 4192 Koreans. Let's suppose it's 5000 now. It would still be less than 1%
All this talk about taking over Russian territory is just pure fantasy. Russia, on a liberal / anti-imperialist wave, even in a bankrupt, extremely weakened state could only become kind enough to detach Yakutia, Caucasus, and some other distinctly ethnically different autonomous regions, but it won't allow anything to happen to the ethnically Russian regions, nor these regions themselves could imaginably see themselves separate. Russia would still be a nuclear power, and I doubt the Chinese would risk a world apocalypse for a piece of tundra.
As of March 8, 2022, China has no claims on Russian land, but history shows that if a juicy opportunity turns up, countries start to come up with claims that were previously forgotten.
Yes, this scenario is unlikely. But not beyond reasonable doubt. Multinational empires have imploded and disintegrated before (Tsarist Russia, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire), and a lost war was the usual cause.