Re:An update on the threat landscape
by tediousdemise on Monday March 07, 2022 @07:21PM
(#30595067)
I think war is an interesting new phenomenon, similar to a pandemic. It's a black swan event that warrants discussion.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Discussion, sure. Discussion here, not necessarily.
Dunno if I’d call it a black swan event. Prediction markets like Metaculus were at 50% way before the invasion and 75% days before; Tho most of the pundits didn’t see it coming: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting?s=r