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Re:1.0 USD = 158.3 Rub by whatshisface on Monday March 07, 2022 @12:24PM (#30590609)
I have a few questions:

1. If I had shorted RUB on US intelligence reports leading up to the invasion, would I be able to collect, or would illiquidity stop me from being able to obtain RUB to cover my shorts?

2. What does this correspond to in terms of what will happen to their economy? Will everyone with savings be out half, while everything adjusts to the new prices and the fixed value of Russia's natural resources simply re-denominates into 2023 rubles? Too bad they halted stock trading, otherwise we'd know what the future expectations for profit are.

3. Does this indicate anything beyond A. a rush to move money out of the country and/or B. an expectation that their government will be printing a lot of money?

Re:1.0 USD = 158.3 Rub by traceroute66 on Monday March 07, 2022 @12:33PM (#30590754)
> 1. If I had shorted RUB on US intelligence reports leading up to the invasion, would I be able to collect, or would illiquidity stop me from being able to obtain RUB to cover my shorts?

The keyword you need to put into Mr Google is "B-book".

Unless you:

    a) Are a big-cheese in the trading world; or
    b) Opened an account with the very very very very small number of brokers that are 100% A-Book
You will almost certainly be trading on a B-book account.

In a simplified nutshell, B-Book means that your order never goes anywhere near the market. Your trades are internalised by your broker, they are market makers for their own book, and they settle their trades internally. Your broker reduces their own internal risk on their B-book by (if necessary) making the necessary risk-reducing trades on the real market.

So in essence, yes you would be able to "collect" because your broker would be doing the settlement internally.

However, and its a BIG however. In exceptionally volatile markets such as Ukraine events, your broker will implement risk management procedures in order to prevent lots of clients blowing up their accounts and therefore exposing your broker to a large aggregated risk. Therefore unless you already had a trade in-play before risk management was enabled, its unlikely you'll be able to put on much now (at least not without a large margin requirement).

I should say that all the foregoing applies soley to "day-trading" (i.e. CFDs, Spread Bets, Futures etc.). For equities ("stocks & shares") then then there is always external settlement.

Re:1.0 USD = 158.3 Rub by freeqaz on Monday March 07, 2022 @01:35PM (#30591544)
Would buying an option be less risky for the broker? Even when they enable "risk management" do you think they would halt option trading?

I'm no expert so I'm just speculating here. IIRC, an option is you making an agreement with some entity to say "hey here is $X (2-5%) for you to hold on to (PUT?) or to let me buy (CALL?) within the next 2 weeks."

The difference between that and a classic "short" is that you never actually hold the stock/asset with an option. (IIRC, a short means you buy and sell but need to cover within X days.)

I'm probably wrong on some level here. For this thread though I think others would probably enjoy some more explanations about how profiting in a decreasing market works because it's always trickier than with traditional "up and to the right" one.

Cheers!

Re:1.0 USD = 158.3 Rub by traceroute66 on Tuesday March 08, 2022 @03:33AM (#30597827)
> Would buying an option be less risky for the broker? Even when they enable "risk management" do you think they would halt option trading?

With the caveat that whilst I'm familiar with the financial sector, I'm no expert in structured products...

My understanding is that if the broker has sufficient internal volume, then what will happen is they will just Net-Net internally.

By that I mean match trades, i.e. Alice puts on a Buy for 10 and Bob puts on a Sell for 10 (or <10). By definition its not possible for both of them to "win", so the "loser" will pay the other person's winnings as well as the broker's commission.

If there is insufficient volume whether due to lack of clients or a particular product is particularly volatile / illiquid, then the broker may then take steps to hedge externally. In that case yes, they may use options, futures, swaps or any other derivative products (typically they only use derivatives to hedge, but sometimes they might use physical trades).

Regarding halting trading, typically this is only done in extreme circumstances where they themselves cannot get a handle on what's going on (see the unexpected unpegging of the Swiss Franc for a good example).

Otherwise in most cases, what will normally happen is they will ramp up the margin requirements which will (a) discourage most traders (b) provide them with enough breathing space for the traders that still wish to participate.

Re:1.0 USD = 158.3 Rub by pzm3292 on Monday March 07, 2022 @12:32PM (#30590727)
Re:1.0 USD = 158.3 Rub by belter on Monday March 07, 2022 @12:40PM (#30590871)
Once more the golden boys and girls from wallstreetbets show their qualities. Asked the 24 Jan... :-)

"Sincere Question : How to short the Russian Ruble":

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/sbvjiw/sinc...

Re:1.0 USD = 158.3 Rub by Bajeezus on Monday March 07, 2022 @01:26PM (#30591430)
An invasion of Ukraine and a tanking of the Ruble was hardly an unforeseeable circumstance in late January.