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Re:Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends by dan-robertson on Saturday March 05, 2022 @09:12PM (#30574346)
It’s clear those conditions are necessary but not that they are sufficient. There must be a path where it is obvious to the Russian people and leadership that if certain things are done then the sanctions will be immediately lifted. Currently it seems plausible that sanctions could remain after meeting those conditions as a kind of punishment, or just because they can be sticky (that is, easier to impose than to retract). If one is to believe that the reason for the war is entirely Putin, and if the people and others in power understood that removing Putin/ending the war would lead to a lifting of the sanctions and potentially significant improvements to the status quo before the war, there would be much stronger incentives to do that. Without knowing that sanctions would be lifted, someone who replaced Putin would be left in the unenviable position of t dealing with the economic consequences of the earlier sanctions/foreign business exits. For similar reasons there should be a way for Russia to pull out while saving face so that the cost of doing it is less. It seems unlikely to me that Putin will be replaced because of the war so, if one is to believe that he particularly cares about his image and perception, having a face-saving route out is particularly important. But I don’t know what that would look like.

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