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Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by Animats on Friday March 04, 2022 @03:35PM (#30560169)
Well, Waymo is already working in San Francisco. Winter in New York adds traction control and additional obstacles. Traction control is already mostly the vehicle's job anyway, what with anti-skid systems. It can go way beyond that. Stanford has an autonomous, electric, drifting, deLorean.[1][2]

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNIDcT0Zdj4 [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x3SqeSdrAE

Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by jreese on Friday March 04, 2022 @03:53PM (#30560406)
- limited visibility due to haze or precipitation

- everything is some shade of white/grey/brown

- snow is incredibly reflective

- winter is cold; sensors are almost certainly affected, dirty, or covered

- pedestrians are bundled up, looking less like people

- road markings are obscured or buried

- signs are dirty

- stopping distances are increased

- speeds must be slower to compensate for lack of traction

- "traction control" only helps when accelerating; stability control and ABS only help so much in snow/ice

Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by slindsey on Friday March 04, 2022 @03:45PM (#30560292)
2030 seems impossible to me. In NY, you might not be able to see the road surface at all due to snow. Curbs and other landmarks that are necessary for Waymo to work (they map _everything_) will be covered. Seems unlikely to account for all conditions necessary for level 5 in 7 years.
Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by ghaff on Friday March 04, 2022 @04:24PM (#30560775)
Yeah. The against side of this bet seems like a no brainer. Is it possible (maybe even more likely than not) that there will be a fully autonomous system that will be available in that timeframe that can navigate many limited access highways in certain weather conditions by then? Absolutely.

And that actually looks very interesting to me for long drives. I actually care less about handling local driving including urban driving near me. I want the long highway drives to be handled.

Yes, 100% autonomous is another kind of interesting and opens up use cases like dropping me off at the airport. But that seems really hard.

Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by kortilla on Friday March 04, 2022 @03:45PM (#30560296)
The problem is not traction, it’s the visibility impact of snow drifts, etc.
Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by mark-r on Friday March 04, 2022 @03:53PM (#30560399)
Exactly. Not being able to see where the lanes are because the paint is covered by snow brings about a whole new level of challenge.
Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by aidenn0 on Friday March 04, 2022 @04:03PM (#30560549)
Forget snow; that problem exists for wet roads at night with oncoming traffic!
Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by mark-r on Friday March 04, 2022 @04:29PM (#30560846)
It's worse with snow. I'm in Minnesota, I speak from experience.
Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by aidenn0 on Friday March 04, 2022 @04:44PM (#30561017)
It's definitely worse with snow, but the areas where "roads are sometimes wet" are a superset of "roads are sometimes covered with snow."

That is to say, you could have L5 in Miami without handling snow, but rain...

Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by mark-r on Friday March 04, 2022 @05:14PM (#30561325)
OK, I see your point. But try to see mine - rain may make it hard to see the lines, but snow may make it impossible.
Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by aidenn0 on Friday March 04, 2022 @08:32PM (#30563088)
Yes, snow is worse in every possible way than rain (unless the rain then freezes to the road). We are so far away from that though.

Don't forget, for L5 it also needs:

- Do the right thing in construction zones where signs and/or barriers may indicate that following the lines is wrong (including flag-men)

- Detect when an out-of-site emergency vehicle with sirens running may be approaching the next intersection and slow down

- Go 25 "when children are present" and 55 when children are not present (though TBH, humans are mediocre at this, and L5 only requires human-level ability)[1]

To my knowledge, there's nothing in the prototype stage that can handle the above in sunny weather. Going from "No protytpe can do this in sunny weather" to "Commercially available in 8 years" seems unlikely even if we restricted it to "only in areas with no snow"

1: For the non-Californians, I drive by 3 of these on my way to work: https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/what-does-when-ch...

Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by mark-r on Friday March 04, 2022 @11:33PM (#30564283)
And this is exactly why I think Jeff has the winning bet.
Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by ghaff on Friday March 04, 2022 @04:25PM (#30560797)
And there are basically non-existent lines on tons of roads.
Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by stingrae on Friday March 04, 2022 @04:12PM (#30560657)
polarizers reduce this problem.
Re:A 2030 Self-Driving Car Bet by mark-r on Friday March 04, 2022 @04:25PM (#30560792)
Polarizers also reduce the amount of light, increasing the required camera sensitivity and noise.