If the Ukranians are willing to sacrifice everything for the independence, chances are, they will get their independence, nukes or not. At least as long as they keep getting support from the west. If Russia keeps getting thousands or tens of thousands of body bags back each year, for 10, 20 or 30 years, eventually, they will tire of holding on to the Ukraine.

The cost may be millions of Ukrainian lives, so this all comes down to how much the Ukranian people is willing to endure for their eventual independence.