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Re:How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war by paxys on Thursday March 03, 2022 @09:06PM (#30549725)
> I can't think of a guerrilla war since WWII that hasn't been successful

Because failed ones don't last long enough to be remembered. There was a guerrilla insurgency in Iraq after Saddam's government fell, for example, which folded pretty quick.

Re:How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war by somenameforme on Friday March 04, 2022 @03:08AM (#30551968)
Interesting note there. One of the leaders of the early insurrection was Muqtada al-Sadr [1]. There's a lot that's happened in between including him going into exile in Iran, returning, the US droning his house when it was empty to send a message, and much more. But suffice to say the conclusion of this story is that he's now becoming the dominant political force in Iraq. This is particularly relevant today since I think given the chaos around the world, there's a real chance that his name will come to be much more well known.

But the point of this is that unpopular occupation forces trying to impose their will never really works in anything even remotely like the long-run. The only times it can work is when a genuinely popular (and not artificially propped up) leader is able to find common ground with the "enemy". For instance one of the best decisions we made after WW2 was with the leader of Japan, Emperor Hirohito. We actively avoided not only attacking him, but did not try him for war crimes, and let him retain control of the country after the war. He chose to lead Japan in a different direction following their defeat, and everybody came out all the better for it. It's very likely that had we executed him, or installed a puppet, that Japan's relation with the west would be radically different today.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muqtada_al-Sadr

Re:How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war by prox on Friday March 04, 2022 @03:52AM (#30552267)
So technically the US should have kept Saddam, forcing/swaying him to become a Democratic government?
Re:How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war by xen0 on Friday March 04, 2022 @05:13AM (#30552764)
I don't think this is a good comparison.

The Emperor of Japan was part of a very old, very well established monarchy; his legitimacy in the office of Monarch far outweighed that of Saddam's in the office of Tyrant.

Re:How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war by scarface74 on Friday March 04, 2022 @04:31AM (#30552497)
Yes
Re:How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war by jcranmer on Thursday March 03, 2022 @09:16PM (#30549806)
That's not true--the examples I gave in my sibling comment are all decades-long insurgencies (which is why I can remember them).

In general, the more likely reason is that most people tend to be resolutely incurious about foreign politics. There are, IIRC, 150-ish ongoing armed conflicts in the world right now (and this count is far lower than it was 50 years ago!). I suspect that even reasonably well-read Westerners would struggle to identify even a dozen of them. So people selectively remember the ones that involved the major powers (e.g., Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam) while completely ignoring ones that don't (so, how about that rebellion in Aceh that failed...).

Re:How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war by ProjectArcturis on Thursday March 03, 2022 @09:09PM (#30549744)
Uh.... I think by any measure the insurgency in Iraq was successful in pushing out the US.
Re:How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war by paxys on Thursday March 03, 2022 @09:18PM (#30549820)
A civilian elected government has been running Iraq since 2005. US wasn't "pushed out" by insurgents but rather left in a planned gradual transfer of power. If anything, militant groups in the region (like ISIL) actually extended US military presence there by many years.