My prediction is the West will give material aide, but Ukraine will fall and we’ll enter another Cold War.
To suggest the West will go to war is just wishful thinking. Ukraine will be sacrificed for a temporary and unstable peace in Eastern Europe. Putin called NATO’s bluff and NATO won’t push harder.
I see the attack on Ukraine as an existential threat to the West as a whole - and Im probably not the only one asking if maybe its worth risking nuclear conflict. Can we trust Putin with a nuclear arsenal in any case, even if he withdraws ?
"The West" vs. Russia is just a military execution of Russia.
That reality remains the one means we have of stopping their nukes.
I was thinking about that. They are now going to deliver some Migs to the Ukrainian army, because their pilots can already operate those. But let's say they don't have enough pilots for that, who is to say who's operating those Migs? Some Polish volunteers that joined the foreign army recently?
Russia also pulled that stunt in the east where Russian "volunteers" are fighting alongside the separatists.
No, they aren’t. That now-deleted tweeted from an adviser to European Parliament doesn’t reflect reality, and has been denied by NATO, Poland (who was the one state specifically rumored to be providing planes), and every other source its been attempted to be confirmed with.
Your logic is left over from pre-nuclear times, when it still made sense. As horrifying as it might be be to face this cold, post-nuclear calculus, we must do it to survive as a species. Which is not to say that we should not push back against aggressive dictators — we must, as much as we are able — but conventional warfare between nuclear powers has to forever be off the table.
(But I do desperately hope and pray that Ukraine somehow manages to beat Russia back without massive loss of life.)
> If the risk is too high, no it is not
Which shows why your original statement was wrong: It depends on how high the risk is. If the risk is low enough, it may be worth taking.
Remains only to find out exactly how high it is... Which becomes, AFAICS, an investigation into the psyche of Vladimir Putin.
On the whole, I lean towards Putin not being quite that crazy -- and hey, remember that even the Soviet Union had that ultimate safeguard, officers willing to disobey orders -- so it shouldn't be all that high. But it's hard to say for sure.
Wars are not decided based on pure logic - we are somewhat intelligent apes, we will risk it all to defend our tribe - particularly if we feel the aggression is unfair and unjustified.
Ukraine can win, they just can't meet the bulk of Russia's forces head on. They can, however, defeat Russia in time, and with the support of allies that time can be short. If Ukraine comes out of this an EU member then they will have profound and victory that will benefit Ukraine for generations.
This is an opportunity. Putin has rolled the dice and thrown the first punch. Russia needs punishment in the form of military humiliation and Putin has given the West a once in a century moment to deliver exactly that.