Your analysis on whether your opponent has made a mistake cannot assume that they are so smart they'd never make a mistake.

For one, many people in Russia barely can afford food, and many medicines are imported. Prices on basic food were increasing over the past year, and not with sanctins further rise is inevitable.

There could be food riots.

Its like a stock trader looking at the market, saying to himself 'if the stock was undervalued, it's future gainst would already be priced in by the efficient market, therefore no stock is ever worth buying"