AFAIK China lacks sufficient military resources to actually take Taiwan. You can't just drive tanks and people across the strait.

China needs Russia's support vs. Taiwan. It seems like this is would be a horrible time to try something

> China needs Russia's support

When Russia gets kicked out of UN, they won’t.

Tawain is being handed back anyway. China is patient

I'm sorry, when did the US Navy withdraw from SE Asia?

Plus right now the US is making a show of strength against invasions by authoritarian dictators, and Biden has stated that we have "obligations" to Taiwan, although he was intentionally vague he basically said the silent part out loud. It would be political suicide to not respond to a Chinese invasion, and we could respond quite decisively from a military perspective.

China will wait for a more opportune moment.

When everyone thinks American military spending is ridiculous, the fact that we maintain a two-ocean Navy (with parity to potential adversaries) is a key component of that. By law and design, the expectation is that the US should be able to fight a major war in the Atlantic and Pacific at the same time.

Everyone's military spending is ridiculous. As someone who's more of an isolationist, I have to concede that having a large military is very important, or else our country and its freedoms are toast. The real problem is the people in charge of said military. Not the size. The difficulty is in maintaining and responsibly controlling that force.

I'm not sure it would be political suicide, since although Taiwan is becoming more popular with Americans, does that translate to a stomach for WW3?

Americans in general are stubborn to a fault and full of ourselves internationally. It would be less altruism to save Taiwan and more "fuck China". The sanctions on Russia are predicted to make gasoline prices soar, especially on the West Coast, and it's anecdotal but the conversations I'm hearing are less polite versions of "fine, I'm willing to pay a little more at the pump to stick it to Putin". Although I'm not on the west coast I'd agree with the sentiment.

Then you have Republicans, right now they're deriding Biden for going soft on Putin and blaming him for this crisis (not sure how many are buying it outside of Trump's base, but that's the line). So going soft on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would play right into that message. No way Biden could do it for that reason alone, let alone the myriad of other motivations.

It's not a "fuck China" thing. It would be a severe short-term tactical blunder to lose Taiwan, not even considering the moral perspective. Modern military cannot function without semiconductors. And yes, we could (and are starting to) move those facilities to the US, but that takes a lot of time to complete. Not only to complete, but to get up to speed and running efficiently. If Taiwan is lost, our enemies bolster their semiconductor supply, and we lose the majority of ours.