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A comment on Ask HN: Is anyone else genuinely scared that this is the start of WW3?. Parent comment

Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else genuinely scared that this is the ... by ctvo on Sunday February 27, 2022 @04:41PM (#30492823)
> That said, I think it's extremely unlikely this will escalate to a nuclear exchange.

Tail risk is real. No one thought Trump would be president. No one saw the pandemic changing the world. No one thought there’d be conventional land war in Europe again. I hope nothing happens but I’ll withhold assigning likelihood for now.

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Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else genuinely scared that this is the ... by withinboredom on Sunday February 27, 2022 @05:00PM (#30493069)
> No one thought Trump would be president.

Anyone who thought through the whole thing saw it as obvious he was. Republicans were thinking Democrats were going to show up in droves. Democrats thought no one would vote for Trump, so why vote?

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Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else genuinely scared that this is the ... by readme on Sunday February 27, 2022 @04:50PM (#30492931)
s/No one/most people/
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Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else genuinely scared that this is the ... by theshrike79 on Sunday February 27, 2022 @04:46PM (#30492887)
I'm relying on the fact that even though Putin seems to be completely unhinged and detached from reality, the people responsible for keeping Russian nukes working and managing their launch aren't.
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Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else genuinely scared that this is the ... by mach1ne on Sunday February 27, 2022 @05:22PM (#30493314)
That depends on how the system is organized. If there is a briefcase with a large red button, and the people in the silos don't know whether the launch is real or training, Putin's decision is literally the only factor.
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