Unfortunately, most people's predictions are no better than darts, and if you treat them all equally, of course you'd be lost. However if you're informed and know where to look, things start revealing themselves to you.

I'd been concerned about the buildup for a year, but was practically certain once the abrupt demands to NATO and Alperovitch's analysis came out 3 whole months ago:

https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1473362460673515527