Re:Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022
by s1artibartfast on Sunday February 27, 2022 @12:40AM
(#30485717)
You have to break it down by the parties involved: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine.
1) Russia. Russian power is waning, and at the same time Ukraine-NATO integration is approaching the point of irreversibility. Russia sees the potential for a NATO armed Ukraine with US tropps, missiles, and possibly nukes 5 minutes from Moscow as an unacceptable security risk. From the Russian perspective the window to stop Ukraine is closing, and they have to act before NATO armaments has made Ukraine is too strong, and Russia is too weak.
2) NATO. NATO and the US would like to have the additional leverage over Russia provided by bases in Ukraine in the long term. Each additional country in NATO adds to it's strength, and removes a potential threat in the future. NATO wont give Ukraine full membership today, because it does not have full control of it's territory and widespread corruption within Ukraine. NATO, is willing to provide a slow path to membership because it is a Win-win situation. If Russia doesn't act, NATO slowly gets more leverage over Russia (NATO win). If Russia invades Ukraine, Russian forces, economy, and relations are damaged (another NATO win).
3) Ukraine. Essentially stuck in the middle, with no good options. They can grow closer to Russia or the EU, and each has downsides. Russia is a waning power and offers less economically. EU is more prosperous but they must join a military alliance against Russia. If they ever get full NATO membership, the Russian threat is greatly reduced, but NATO application is an extremely long process during which the threat is greatly increased.
1) Russia. Russian power is waning, and at the same time Ukraine-NATO integration is approaching the point of irreversibility. Russia sees the potential for a NATO armed Ukraine with US tropps, missiles, and possibly nukes 5 minutes from Moscow as an unacceptable security risk. From the Russian perspective the window to stop Ukraine is closing, and they have to act before NATO armaments has made Ukraine is too strong, and Russia is too weak.
2) NATO. NATO and the US would like to have the additional leverage over Russia provided by bases in Ukraine in the long term. Each additional country in NATO adds to it's strength, and removes a potential threat in the future. NATO wont give Ukraine full membership today, because it does not have full control of it's territory and widespread corruption within Ukraine. NATO, is willing to provide a slow path to membership because it is a Win-win situation. If Russia doesn't act, NATO slowly gets more leverage over Russia (NATO win). If Russia invades Ukraine, Russian forces, economy, and relations are damaged (another NATO win).
3) Ukraine. Essentially stuck in the middle, with no good options. They can grow closer to Russia or the EU, and each has downsides. Russia is a waning power and offers less economically. EU is more prosperous but they must join a military alliance against Russia. If they ever get full NATO membership, the Russian threat is greatly reduced, but NATO application is an extremely long process during which the threat is greatly increased.