For sure Putin has thought most scenarios through and have guessed correctly that the West will not intervene.

The West however cannot be seen to do nothing, so sanctions are the logical next step.

A part of me thinks that Putin at 69 years old, senses that he have to create a great legacy for himself and invading Ukraine seems like a perfect opportunity.

I sincerely hope that the sanctions will include removing Russia from all sports and excluded from as much trade as possible.

I agree. I definitely think Putin wants to be the hero who re-established the Russian empire or something. I really hope we hit hard with sanctions and they aren't just for show like various European weapon contributions (never mind Canada sitting on its hands in that regard and Germany actively blocking Estonia's weapons and instead sending helmets ffs).

That said, I'm worried that the sanctions will be weak/ineffectual as I doubt NATO countries will want to risk economic harm, especially in Europe where they've allowed themselves to become so dependent on Russian natural gas. Personally I think Ukrainian lives are worth an increase in energy prices.

Same here, but in Denmark many house owners are already struggling with prices on electricity going from DKK 2.000/month to 5.000/month. And this is before Putin invaded Ukraine.

And now gas and oil prices seem to be rising, triggering Biden to state that these increases will be dealt with.

So no, I'm not optimistic about sanctions even though I also think Ukraine must come first.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ukraine-russ...