Re:New study disavows marshmallow test’s predictive powers
by s1artibartfast on Wednesday February 23, 2022 @12:37PM
(#30443830)
This is all quibbles. Replace can with do in my statement and it still stands. Measuring what people do can also have predictive power.
>Measuring my behaviour in one context may tell you little about what I can and might do in another.
It may tell you little, or it may tell you a lot. That is why you run a study and see how predictive it is.
If someone drives fast and reckless today, they might not tomorrow. You can still run a study to see how predictive today's driving is for tomorrow. It won't be 100%, but I bet you would see some correlation. Someone who smoked a cigarette today is more likely to smoke tomorrow than someone that who didn't smoke today. That people can quit and can start doesn't change this
'do' depends on context
I am capable of driving fast, and weaving in and out of traffic on the freeway. But I choose not to, due to the risk/reward trade-off.
If I were in a different situation (e.g. sick child needing to get to hospital urgently), I might act differently.
Measuring my behaviour in one context may tell you little about what I can and might do in another.