I'm down for a friendly or small sum bet. You'll see a major escalation in about a week. Russians will be firing missiles and artillery and dropping bombs in Ukraine proper in March.

I certainly hope I lose.

You're on! $25 USD by TransferWise. There will be no further Russian military incursions into Ukraine proper by March 31st, except perhaps some shuffling around of the Donetsk/Luhansk border.

Note I'm not expecting Putin to stop playing chess, he will never stop with his political power moves, he might blockade Odessa, but there will be no bloodshed. Mark my words. I look forward to peace in Ukraine, for the first time in 8 years.

My email is in my profile.

Sounds good. My email is my username at gmail.

I hope you'll still stock up on various necessities and supplies in the mean time. If nothing happens, you'll still use them up all the same.

Looks like I just lost the bet. Woke up to explosions at 5 AM this morning.

I hope you've learned your lesson.

If Russia claims the full oblasts which contain Ukrainian troops, how can they avoid war?

The assumption is that the actual borders of DNR and LNR will be solved by diplomacy, and Kyiv has hinted that it will try to find a diplomatic solution.

The same kind of diplomatic solution they just got, you mean?