Re:Biden says he's now convinced Putin has decided to invade...
by salawat on Saturday February 19, 2022 @01:51PM
(#30399442)
I could see it happening.
United States since the Trump presidency still hasn't restabilized to the point where marshalling an international intervention is going to be practical. We're in a state where there's so much divisiveness at play, supply chains are in chaos, and we haven't adapted to a more domestically focused manufacturing regime in which we can't be dorked with through collusion direct or indirect with China.
The U.S. of today is a very far cry from the U.S. that has actually stood as a deterrent to Russian aggression previously.
As far as what happens if they do go after Ukraine? That will signal a potential rekindling of Russian in general. They won't be satisfied sharing a border with a NATO member, so Art 5 may very well be tested, but even if so, it will likely be half-hearted enough to end up a Pyrrhic victory for NATO, which instead of galvanizing the alliance, only serves to further destabilize and divide member states.
Now, how this changes things Stateside? I'm not sure it will. The old alliances aren't as strong as they once were, and it will depend largely on what the populace has the stomach for.
United States since the Trump presidency still hasn't restabilized to the point where marshalling an international intervention is going to be practical. We're in a state where there's so much divisiveness at play, supply chains are in chaos, and we haven't adapted to a more domestically focused manufacturing regime in which we can't be dorked with through collusion direct or indirect with China.
The U.S. of today is a very far cry from the U.S. that has actually stood as a deterrent to Russian aggression previously.
As far as what happens if they do go after Ukraine? That will signal a potential rekindling of Russian in general. They won't be satisfied sharing a border with a NATO member, so Art 5 may very well be tested, but even if so, it will likely be half-hearted enough to end up a Pyrrhic victory for NATO, which instead of galvanizing the alliance, only serves to further destabilize and divide member states.
Now, how this changes things Stateside? I'm not sure it will. The old alliances aren't as strong as they once were, and it will depend largely on what the populace has the stomach for.