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A comment on A bevy of rovers heading for the Moon. Parent comment

Re:A bevy of rovers heading for the Moon by vkou on Wednesday February 16, 2022 @01:15PM (#30363517)
It's not, the probability of a SpaceX rocket spectacularly exploding is somewhere around ~1%. They'd need 860 more problem-free launches to hit ~0.1%.

The probability of a truck spectacularly exploding on its way to the launch facility is way less than 0.1%. In fact, it's astronomically lower than 0.1%.

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Re:A bevy of rovers heading for the Moon by jessriedel on Wednesday February 16, 2022 @02:19PM (#30364465)
> They'd need 860 more problem-free launches to hit ~0.1%

For what it's worth, SpaceX claims that they intend to reach this level of safety by literally performing thousands of launches. Time will tell if they can do that.

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Re:A bevy of rovers heading for the Moon by inimino on Wednesday February 16, 2022 @02:11PM (#30364348)
You can't calculate probabilites that way when the process itself is improving.
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