Re:Trudeau Invokes Emergencies Act
by SketchySeaBeast on Monday February 14, 2022 @06:22PM
(#30339947)
Sorry, so you're supposing that there's a bunch of dead bodies lying around that no one is counting as murder?
The dead bodies lying around are being counted, and the count went up.
According to the SFPD link above, homicides in SF rose from 48 to 56 over the entire year 2021 vs 2020.
Re:Trudeau Invokes Emergencies Act
by mensetmanusman on Monday February 14, 2022 @06:39PM
(#30340177)
Not for murder, which has increased in rates in some locales, but possibly for theft.
Re:Trudeau Invokes Emergencies Act
by BitwiseFool on Monday February 14, 2022 @06:38PM
(#30340162)
Why fixate on murders? That is only a small aspect of what "the crime rate" really captures.
Because it's least susceptible to reporting bias, and being an extreme, also offers a base point for interpolation, to independently estimate numbers of lessor crimes, especially violent ones.
Re:Trudeau Invokes Emergencies Act
by joshuamorton on Monday February 14, 2022 @06:48PM
(#30340294)
That's true, but if you don't focus on murders, 2020 was one of the lowest violent crime years on record looking at SF, CA as a whole, or the entire US, so 2021 having an increase in crime is nothing more than reversion to the mean.
If all crimes resulted in dead bodies in the aftermath, I would agree with your reasoning here. But even violent crimes, most of the time, do not produce a dead body.
So given how flawed that premise was to begin with, I don't think an explanation is needed for why your overall point is disingenuous at best.
Re:Trudeau Invokes Emergencies Act
by spartanatreyu on Monday February 14, 2022 @06:50PM
(#30340326)
I feel like from a criminological standpoint, we would have some understanding (or even a heuristic) about the reportedness of crimes and if they are rising/falling in proportion to reported crimes.
Re:Trudeau Invokes Emergencies Act
by fineIllregister on Monday February 14, 2022 @07:22PM
(#30340690)
There is. For instance, you can look at other sources, such as insurance claims; people file them to get paid, they dont care if the party responsible is prosecuted.
People trying to hype up the crime thing deliberately ignore these sources because, as you can see, it allows them to make up as much crime as they can imagine and base their argument on that.
The prediction was that next people would use the evidence that there are fewer crimes being reported as proof that nothing is wrong. This does seem very much like what we are seeing here.