Heuristics that almost always work

Re:Heuristics that almost always work by jrochkind1 on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @09:06PM (#30267746)

OK, the next 3 months are no more dangerous for you than if you hadn't spent the last 12 months doing it. What you did in the past has no bearing on the chances going forward. I'm not sure if it's more clear to say it like that or not. Clearly, humans have a lot of trouble speaking and thinking clearly about statistics.

The next three months are no riskier than your first three months were. They don't become more risky because they will add up to 15 months total -- once you've already finished the first 12 without incident.

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Re:Heuristics that almost always work by kenjackson on Wednesday February 09, 2022 @09:03AM (#30272702)

For the dice roll example that is true. But other examples it isn’t. For example the MTBF of a device that has run for x hours approaching the MTBF is probably more likely to fall in the next x hours. Or if there is some cyclic behavior. Like waiting outside for a hot day.

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