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Re:The Kelly criterion: How to size bets (2019) by shakezula on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @07:58PM (#30267193)
I think it would be a good heuristic if you were able to be that precise about expenses, but I think most startups aren’t.
Re:The Kelly criterion: How to size bets (2019) by paulgb on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @08:08PM (#30267263)
(Author here) I agree, but I think there is some applicability of the Kelly Criterion to startups (at least qualitativey) in explaining why an entrepreneur who is all-in on a company may be more inclined to take an exit than their investors, who have spread their bets.
Re:The Kelly criterion: How to size bets (2019) by kqr on Wednesday February 09, 2022 @01:12AM (#30269522)
The Kelly criterion is a U-shaped optimisation problem, so it is rather tolerant of imprecise estimations!