Re:Heuristics that almost always work
by toss1 on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @06:36PM
(#30266437)
Yup, and the article ends with this:
>>All these things are almost always true. But Heuristics That Almost Always Work tempt us to be more certain than we should of each
The most important thing to realize about risk is this:
The difference between [using knowledge, skill, technology, and planning to manage risk] vs. [getting away with something]
If you aren't managing risk, it is managing you. And you can get away with something for a long time, but it is always a matter of until you don't, and then it is too 'effin late for you.
When you are managing the risk, you can make an entire career or lifetime of doing things that will otherwise kill you in seconds, scuba diving, flying, mountaineering, building tall structures, working with molten metal or dangerous chemicals, etc., etc., etc.
You can also get away with very dangerous things for at least enough time to fool you into thinking you are smart. The article discusses this at length.
This is why when you need to understand and manage the risks, and also be very alert to close calls - they mean that even though you thought you're managing, you've actually gone into the land of [getting away with it], just saved by Pure Dumb Luck. Don't say "it's okay it worked", look at why, because you might not have as much PDL next time.
>>All these things are almost always true. But Heuristics That Almost Always Work tempt us to be more certain than we should of each
The most important thing to realize about risk is this:
The difference between [using knowledge, skill, technology, and planning to manage risk] vs. [getting away with something]
If you aren't managing risk, it is managing you. And you can get away with something for a long time, but it is always a matter of until you don't, and then it is too 'effin late for you.
When you are managing the risk, you can make an entire career or lifetime of doing things that will otherwise kill you in seconds, scuba diving, flying, mountaineering, building tall structures, working with molten metal or dangerous chemicals, etc., etc., etc.
You can also get away with very dangerous things for at least enough time to fool you into thinking you are smart. The article discusses this at length.
This is why when you need to understand and manage the risks, and also be very alert to close calls - they mean that even though you thought you're managing, you've actually gone into the land of [getting away with it], just saved by Pure Dumb Luck. Don't say "it's okay it worked", look at why, because you might not have as much PDL next time.