Re:Heuristics that almost always work
by digital-cygnet on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @06:19PM
(#30266282)
I think what you're missing is that they are not avoiding "going rock climbing one more time"; they are avoiding "being a person who habitually rock climbs", because while each excursion is low-risk the aggregate effect will be high risk. It's like smoking -- one cigarette won't appreciably impact your health, but "being a smoker" will.
None of this intended to cast aspersions on rock climbing in particular, just pointing out that a reasonable person, understanding independence of events and not falling prey to any fallacy, could reasonably make this decision based on their personal risk tolerance
Re:Heuristics that almost always work
by ummonk on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @06:28PM
(#30266369)
Yes, or more accurately there is a frequency of climbing outings at which the marginal increase in satisfaction from an extra climbing is no longer sufficient to justify the increased risk.
None of this intended to cast aspersions on rock climbing in particular, just pointing out that a reasonable person, understanding independence of events and not falling prey to any fallacy, could reasonably make this decision based on their personal risk tolerance