Heuristics that almost always work

Re:Heuristics that almost always work by ska on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @05:31PM (#30265793)

That only applies if you are updating priors. In this case the odds are fixed, the GP is correct.

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Re:Heuristics that almost always work by 323 on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @05:47PM (#30265949)

The odds of a rocking accident are known and fixed?

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Re:Heuristics that almost always work by ska on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @07:46PM (#30267069)

Probably not. But they aren't affected by the previous N climbs, at least as described by GP post. They are considering a fixed odds event, and the probability of (bad thing happens) over a sample path through time. That's not the turkey fallacy.

In other words , the difference between the turkey and the climber is the climber knows the odds (at least nominally) , and it’s important .

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