Heuristics that almost always work

Re:Heuristics that almost always work by ska on Tuesday February 08, 2022 @05:22PM (#30265699)

That's like the difference between

You could win 100mm in the lottery (true statement!)

Lottery tickets are a good investment (almost always, false statement).

Planning on "well it could happen, technically" isn't a good approach.

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Re:Heuristics that almost always work by blunte on Wednesday February 09, 2022 @01:59AM (#30269784)

But when looking at a possible positive outcome, such as the lottery case, it can "make sense" to buy one ticket.

Your chance of winning goes from No Chance to A Chance, which is an infinite improvement.

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Re:Heuristics that almost always work by ska on Wednesday February 09, 2022 @01:17PM (#30276073)

That's not how this works as a rational investment choice.

It's true that you can never win a lottery you don't enter, but the expected value of that ticket is vastly lower than what you paid for it. That means, as an investment, your $10 will be expected to do better in literally anything with a positive return.

If you are buying > $10 worth of dreaming (for you), fine - but that's consumption.

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