They're easily comparable because current prices incorporate all publicly available information (and even some non-public). If you accept the 15% assumption, you're letting them hoodwink you.

Or, are you saying, they justify small grants by telling you the stock will grow?

Then Amazon recruiter wants to "match" that, so 300 * 4=1200k over 4 years.

Base pay is maxed at 160 (until today's announcement), so 1200k-(160 * 4) = 560k to come up with with stocks and cash bonus.

Let's say Amazon 30 day moving average share price during negotiation is $1200 a share

So now recruiter must make math such that:

- TC stays relatively flat. On year 3 & 4 you get 40% of award, but only 5% year 1 and 15% year. (so a cash bonus to offset year 1 is ~35% of grant amount, and cash bonus offset year 2 is ~25% of grant amount)

- TC assuming 15% growth of stock

So, they'll offer you 220 units:

Year 1:

with only 5% * 220 * 1200=$13k from RSU, you need (300-160-13)=127k cash bonus , now your TC year 1 is 300k.

Year 2:

15% * 220 * 1200 * 1.15=46k from RSU So cash bonus of 94k.

Year 3:

40% * 220 * 1200 * 1.15^2=140k RSU that's 300k of TC

Year 4:

40% * 220 * 1200 * 1.15^3=160k RSU That's even more, 320k TC \o/

So all the math here is done using fictional share price that grew 1.15^n for each year. But in concrete, your offer says 220 units. If Amazon grew much more than 15% a year, on year 3 you're still making 40% * 220 units, no matter what the share price is.

But the final offer is:

160k / year base, 220 units over 4 year with 5%/15%/40%/40% vesting, and 127k cash bonus year 1 + 94k cash bonus year 2.

Amazon is one of rare FAANG where the RSU offer is given in share count in offer itself, not in $.

From your example, they offer you 220 units, valued at 13+46+140+160 = $359k.

However, if the stock stays perfectly flat, the actual value is $264k (220 * 1200).

I went back to look at the AWS offer I turned down. There was no mention of a 15% assumption anywhere, but it did spell out total RSU, base salary, and first two year bonuses, which ends up making year 1 about 8% more than year 4 for the same stock price.

This seems at odds with what you've presented.

Yes, exactly (less with compounding, about $370k -- see sibling thread).

Of course you only get that number if your new target compensation is in line with that number.

So other companies have locked you in to your performance at interview time, while Amazon can give you a 15% paycut each year if your performance isn't high enough to at your offer level.