Covid-19 breakthrough data

Re:Covid-19 breakthrough data by throwawaybutno on Sunday January 16, 2022 @11:07AM (#29957089)

This data is really quite poor. It’s adjusted based on a 2000 census. It’s also showing a 2 dose effectiveness of over 70% against Omicron which we know to be under 10%. If you’re using this as an argument to get vaccinated, it’s a bad one.

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Re:Covid-19 breakthrough data by nojito on Sunday January 16, 2022 @02:18PM (#29958962)

> It’s also showing a 2 dose effectiveness of over 70% against Omicron which we know to be under 10%

This isn't possible. If it were true, NYC would have collapsed during the Omicron wave due to bed shortages.

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Re:Covid-19 breakthrough data by tremon on Sunday January 16, 2022 @03:28PM (#29959628)

It would be possible if the hospitalization rate due to Omicron is also 7x lower than for the earlier variants. I don't have numbers in either direction, but given case loads rising everywhere yet recorded deaths remaining relatively stable, it's not a priori an impossibility.

(edit: just checked the UK's stats over the past month: infections have peaked at 200k/day, 5x the baseline rate over the past few months. Daily deaths have doubled but not yet peaked, suggesting Omicron has at most a 2.5x reduction in severity -- usual caveats apply, this is very coarse data, IANAE etc)

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Re:Covid-19 breakthrough data by ttfkam on Sunday January 16, 2022 @11:09AM (#29957107)

> which we know to be under 10%

Source?

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Re:Covid-19 breakthrough data by resource0x on Sunday January 16, 2022 @11:35AM (#29957375)

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data#casesByVaccinationStatus

Search for "hospital but not the ICU". Look above it for ICU stats. For "Not in ICU", it can be argued that even 10% is an overstatement. The author of the article, meanwhile, doesn't provide any sources whatsoever.

Another interesting piece of data was recently removed from Got-t of Alberta website, but you can see it here: https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/the-government-of-albert...

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Re:Covid-19 breakthrough data by curt15 on Sunday January 16, 2022 @05:42PM (#29961135)

The Ontario dashboard for "Not in ICU" currently shows 739 unvaccinated and 2050 vaccinated. But since effectiveness compares rates, not absolute numbers, one needs to normalize those numbers by the size of each subpopulation. Since roughly 80 percent of Ontarios are vaxxed, the relative risk for being unvaccinated is approximately

(739/0.2) / (2050/0.8) = 1.4

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Re:Covid-19 breakthrough data by curt15 on Monday January 17, 2022 @05:30AM (#29965173)

Any reason for the downwote? If anything, this underestimates the risk since it assumes no difference in infection rates.

If one normalizes instead by the actual number of unvaccinated cases and vaccinated cases as reported further down on that page, one gets

(739/1456) / (2050/8079) = 2

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