Do climate models predict extreme weather?

Re:Do climate models predict extreme weather? by sanxiyn on Saturday January 08, 2022 @09:22PM (#29859236)

Lung cancer risk was established with control group. We don't have control group for a planet so we use climate models. The article is about remembering that we use models because of lack of alternatives, not because they are as good as control group.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Do climate models predict extreme weather? by dpierce9 on Saturday January 08, 2022 @09:28PM (#29859289)

The parent was suggesting causal inference from general statistical evidence to particulars is impossible.

You seem to be suggesting there can be no causal inference where there are no control groups.

Both positions are wrong.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Do climate models predict extreme weather? by sanxiyn on Saturday January 08, 2022 @09:32PM (#29859323)

I am saying it is better to have control groups than not. Hopefully that is non-controversial.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Do climate models predict extreme weather? by dpierce9 on Saturday January 08, 2022 @09:57PM (#29859509)

That isn’t controversial. The issue is your first point, there is no control group for the Earth as a whole system. So demanding a control group as a barrier to causal reasoning about the relationship between weather and the climate is an impossible bar.

Weather is real. Weather has causes. We can and do reason about those causes all the time.

[ Parent | on HN ]