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Re:Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean by joe_the_user on Saturday January 08, 2022 @08:28PM (#29858813)
Tails and they choose the one to the right. Which means that in 1 of 3 games the host will accidentally reveal the prize.

And what happens then? I mean, I think people have said from the start, that this behavior is outside the specification of the problem - which is that the host opens a door and reveals nothing.

The situation is about only the situation where the host choose the door with nothing. The host "opens one door without a prize". The key detail is this, "opens one door without a prize", not "knows where the prize is". If the host doesn't know where the prize but still, by chance, "opens one door without a prize", then, in this situation the contestant's information remains the same and the odds remain the same.

Re:Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean by mikenew on Saturday January 08, 2022 @09:29PM (#29859302)
I don't know what to tell you at this point. From the wikipedia article:

> Most people come to the conclusion that switching does not matter because there are two unopened doors and one car and that it is a 50/50 choice. This would be true if the host opens a door randomly, but that is not the case; the door opened depends on the player's initial choice, so the assumption of independence does not hold.

Random means there's a possibility the host opens the door containing the prize. The Monty Hall problem specifies that that is not a possible scenario, and that the host does not choose randomly.

> If the host doesn't know where the prize but still, by chance, "opens one door without a prize", then, in this situation the contestant's information remains the same and the odds remain the same.

The host cannon open a door by chance if there's no chance of opening the door with a prize behind it.

Re:Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean by mbg721 on Saturday January 08, 2022 @09:33PM (#29859335)
The host doesn't know exactly where the prize is, but he knows that the door he's opening is a dud; that's the information that he has and the audience doesn't.