Re:Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean
by 8note on Saturday January 08, 2022 @02:56PM
(#29855505)
The door that's left over went through many trials of not being selected by the host.
The one you chose doesn't get those additional tests. If it's bad, that door had 98 chances where it could have been chosen to be opened by the host, and didn't get chosen. It's either a very lucky empty door, or the correct door.
You can take this all the way to the limiting case where you pick one out of infinite doors, where the probability of you getting it right is ~0. Then, you're presented with a second door, knowing that there's definitely a prize between the two. You're prior knowledge that there's no chance that it's behind the door you picked doesn't go away because you've been given a second door.
Hell, you can go even further, and say you pick between several doors known to be empty, then be presented with a second door and the knowledge that there's a winning door between the two. Your chances looking at the doors starting with two doors is still 50/50, unless you remember that your door is already empty
The one you chose doesn't get those additional tests. If it's bad, that door had 98 chances where it could have been chosen to be opened by the host, and didn't get chosen. It's either a very lucky empty door, or the correct door.
You can take this all the way to the limiting case where you pick one out of infinite doors, where the probability of you getting it right is ~0. Then, you're presented with a second door, knowing that there's definitely a prize between the two. You're prior knowledge that there's no chance that it's behind the door you picked doesn't go away because you've been given a second door.
Hell, you can go even further, and say you pick between several doors known to be empty, then be presented with a second door and the knowledge that there's a winning door between the two. Your chances looking at the doors starting with two doors is still 50/50, unless you remember that your door is already empty