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Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by AlbertCory on Saturday January 08, 2022 @01:09PM (#29854357)
> results—theoretical at this point, tested mathematically and with computer simulations

I was about to say "these results are extremely unlikely to be replicable" until I saw that phrase: there are no results. She had some models. This sort of thing is hard to devise an experiment for.

I was once in a very complicated experiment designed to "prove" that group decision making was better : your group was at a house in the woods and you were trapped in an Australian bushfire. You had to pick 10 items as being important to your survival, both on your own and collectively as part of a group. Then those results were compared to the "experts" ranking; the experts being Australian fire fighters with tons of experience in this.

  (Side note: I think of this every time there really IS an Australian bushfire.)
The results were pretty unconvincing; almost everyone, individually and collectively, got it wrong. Everyone thought "car keys" and "cell phone" were the most important. WRONG! Your car will get trapped in a traffic jam trying to get away and you'll burn, and the cell towers will be overloaded and your phone won't work. If you're curious, the most important was "long pants" and "long sleeved shirt" because exposed skin will burn most readily.

Afterwards, our boss said "I was really pleased that our group really came together and arrived at the results collaboratively."

I said "Yeah, but we all died!"

Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by ghaff on Saturday January 08, 2022 @02:17PM (#29855096)
I find the "wisdom of crowds" vs. groupthink thing really interesting. Wisdom of crowds is definitely a thing but under fairly narrow conditions that I've never seen rigorously defined although I think people have some sense for it.

When it works it tends to work really well (e.g. http://bitmason.blogspot.com/2012/04/crowdsourcing-predictio...) but it's not very generalizable.

ADDED: To your example, I'm guessing there weren't any real experts in the group (or they were very outnumbered). So there was no "wisdom" of diverse experiences bringing something to the table.

Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by AlbertCory on Saturday January 08, 2022 @03:02PM (#29855565)
> I'm guessing there weren't any real experts in the group

You're right. It was overwhelmingly SV types.

Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by yboris on Sunday January 09, 2022 @12:47PM (#29865583)
Have you read "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki? The book is focused on just the question of what conditions seem to be beneficial/detrimental to sourcing the "wisdom" from crowds.
Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by ghaff on Sunday January 09, 2022 @01:17PM (#29865863)
I have although, as I recall, while the book touches on some of the conditions for the wisdom of crowds to work I didn't leave with a strong sense of a definitive list.

However, as noted upthread some of the things would seem to be independent solutions, an ability to meaningfully aggregate those solutions, and some level of expertise in the crowd (i.e. if everyone's just making completely random guesses it won't work).

Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by AlbertCory on Sunday January 09, 2022 @01:07PM (#29865778)
I have, not sure about @ghaff but I suspect he has, too.

This "researcher" is attempting to go deeper and quantify it, maybe (I suspect) as a way of devaluing individual thinking.

Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by im3w1l on Saturday January 08, 2022 @06:32PM (#29857815)
Traffic jam? In the woods? Further: I could see how cell towers would be overloaded in the past, but these days everyone are internet connected 24/7, so there must be enough capacity for everyone.
Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by aragilar on Saturday January 08, 2022 @08:09PM (#29858668)
Usually there are only one or two exit roads, so it's easy to get blocked (especially with emergency services coming in, falling trees, people leaving at the last minute because they ignored the repeated warnings etc.). If I recall correctly, there were quite a number of people who died in their vehicles in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_bushfires (see also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bus... -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bells_Line_of_Road_Bushfi... the road in that photo is one of two main roads through the mountains, when that's blocked, traffic all over the place is affected).

As for internet, assume it's going to go down quickly, if you had any initially (I'd be surprised if a battery powered radio tuned to the ABC wasn't on the list).

Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by AlbertCory on Saturday January 08, 2022 @08:12PM (#29858699)
What you said.

It doesn't take much traffic to overload one 2-lane road.

Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by NikolaNovak on Saturday January 08, 2022 @07:21PM (#29858287)
There's a really simple test - try texting or calling somebody as clock strikes midnight on new year's.
Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by AlbertCory on Sunday January 09, 2022 @12:15PM (#29865227)
If we're talking about a really rural area (which we are, probably), then their cell capacity might be sized by "what if ALL our subscribers texted at once?"

So if we assume that's N, it still might not handle 10N.

Re:What makes group decisions go wrong and right by im3w1l on Saturday January 08, 2022 @10:16PM (#29859621)
Does cellular internet go down at midnight?