Re:Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean
by galaxyLogic on Saturday January 08, 2022 @06:37AM
(#29850715)
The trick is that it looks like the host is doing the same thing as you, choosing one of the remaining doors. That trick us into thinking the host is operating under the same rules as the guest, it is like a game and in a game typically all players have to follow the same rules. So it is natural to assume this is so.
The situation would be perhaps easier to understand correctly if the host didn't open a door, but told you "I can guarantee to you the car is NOT behind this door"
The situation would be perhaps easier to understand correctly if the host didn't open a door, but told you "I can guarantee to you the car is NOT behind this door"