Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean

Re:Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean by almostdeadguy on Friday January 07, 2022 @08:37PM (#29847605)

And that they can't open the door chosen by the contestant! Also perhaps more subtly, that Monty picks at random when given the option. The original problem prompt is _highly_ underspecified (and makes assumptions that are counter-intuitive to how a game show host might behave).

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Re:Gambler’s Fallacy and the Regression to the Mean by chrismcb on Saturday January 08, 2022 @12:10AM (#29848813)

The problem has posed by von Savant specified the host knew where the prize was. And claims the host reveals a non prize for. It is fairly obvious the host won't reveal the winning door, as it would end the problem. Not sure how the assumptions are fighter intuitive.

Of course Hall himself said maybe I open a door because I want you to switch.

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