None of those are wrong but I think they're missing the point slightly. Bill Gates seemed concerned that Java represented either some existential threat to MS or at least something that would heavily dent their bottom line and pierce their dominance of the desktop market. And really it turned out to neither. Java is indeed very popular and undeniably a successful language + ecosystem, but I don't think what it has become was what Gates had feared.

I'd be interested to see if, knowing how it all played out, Bill Gates now believes he was right to be fretting about Java back then. Given the position Microsoft is in today, maintaining its hold on the desktop with Windows and with a strong cloud offering in Azure, I think he'd answer "no, I wasn't".