Think about it like this. If you show the product to a handful of people that you imagine to be ideal users, and NONE of those people are excited enough about your business to share it with others, then what chance of success do you really have?
To give you a concrete example. I made an app that was a pretty revolutionary take on reading short stories. I had a few friends try it out, all of whom were passionate readers. They said they liked it, but I could see that none of them opened it again after their initial test. To me, that was all the signal I needed to pivot to something else.
My experience has been totally different here.
We found people to be biased toward being polite. So we found "being excited" was a bad signal for what to build.
The best signals were when people offerred things that actually cost something e.g. reputation (by putting us in touch with important people), money or time (if they're people who valued their time highly).
We still haven't found any crazy level of growth though so maybe it is easy and we're just doing it wrong. Who knows.
It's a short book without fluff, I recommend.
For example: - "This is awesome! I would absolutely use this if it would just have this one extra feature it does not have now." --> I absolutely don't care about this product. Please leave me alone. I have better things to do.
I think OP agrees w/ you and this is their key point -- you can ignore everything they say and just look at how, or whether, they use it. More generally, I think it helps to try very hard to get at the underlying problems people have, and try to make those problems go away. People will use very terrible software (interfaces) if it solves a real problem for them. I think your signals are good generalizations to be clear, I just think we (all of us) regularly gloss over problems by focusing on tech, design, or otherwise "cool" things. It can be really hard to figure out what problems people actually have, and also whether they are significant enough to change their behavior to solve them better.
I have been doing customer discovery professionally for over 10 years as a sales person and PM and there is no 1 method or silver bullet to predict whether the product will be successful.
Talking to acquaintances is terrible, because they are biased (see MOM test). They will tell you all kind of stories, but ultimately what matters is:
Are they going to pay?
Excitement has nothing to do with revenue which in the end is the blood of a business.
To extend this - there is a patter now on Twitter where indie devs are selling to their twitter friends, but is it a viable business beyond that? I don't know.
What I do know is that the only way to validate a product is to get paid and the market will tell you the truth.
Thanks for writing this.
You can find problems in your day to day life. Travelling is another way of discovering new problems. Every problem is not worth building a solution for. Only the burning ones with business potential.
And how do you find these 'few people' to pitch to? You would have to find the right people with skin in the game, who are actually impacted by this right? How do you do that? For me, this has always been the part I could never crack.
To give a more concrete example, I know of a successul life insurance company. It was started because the founders had a bad experience with purchasing life insurance. They then worked with (and as) life insurance agents to better understand the customer (and insurer's) needs. THEN they built a company, one solution at a time.
Q: I am having trouble with X; do you have any tips?
A: You are bad at X (but rephrased to make it sound like a character judgement).
Its good feedback that it is worded in a way that has ambiguous meanings, one of which (you are a sociopath) is an unwelcome character judgement. But IMHO the charitable interpretation is perfectly practical and important feedback: Don't build products for users you can't talk to and learn from.
He said „lack empathy for building this particular type of software“, meaning you would not be getting enough emotional feedback (due to lack of connections).
The frugal way is to make something they genuinely want to share to their audience, but, for some, you can also just pay them.
I’ve tried micro startups in the past. I build a landing page, get Google AdWords, maybe put out a post on Reddit or HN, and then…nothing. No signups, no comments. Maybe I’ve just picked the wrong ideas, but I can’t even get people to say “this is bad.” Just silence.
Seems easier when you’ve already built some clout and have a following. But also seems like I’m doing something wrong.
Do you have a specific example of how you did it? A link that you can share?