Re:Ask HN: Why is there a chip shortage?
by vineyardmike on Monday January 03, 2022 @03:26PM
(#29786292)
Great example! Easy to understand, and clearly away from any "conspiratorial" answer.
Just to tack onto it...
> Once you get started again, you crank up capacity to 110/day - it takes you 900 days - almost 2.5 years - to recover that original shutdown deficit, without accounting for any of the increased demand for your product.
This is best-case scenario. Likely is that a few % of your workforce will have been out sick with covid (or even passed away), and a few % of your workforce may have quit to care for family, or quit for better pay elsewhere, etc. So your "work extra hard to hit 110/day" is more likely "work extra hard to stay at 100% or even 90%". Especially limiting if you need to buy parts for your output that may be delayed due to others who are behind.
Re:Ask HN: Why is there a chip shortage?
by noodle on Monday January 03, 2022 @04:54PM
(#29787499)
For sure - my example is just a very basic one to show how easily most industries can slide into a hole that takes time to dig out of even under good conditions. The reality is even more complex.
Just to tack onto it...
> Once you get started again, you crank up capacity to 110/day - it takes you 900 days - almost 2.5 years - to recover that original shutdown deficit, without accounting for any of the increased demand for your product.
This is best-case scenario. Likely is that a few % of your workforce will have been out sick with covid (or even passed away), and a few % of your workforce may have quit to care for family, or quit for better pay elsewhere, etc. So your "work extra hard to hit 110/day" is more likely "work extra hard to stay at 100% or even 90%". Especially limiting if you need to buy parts for your output that may be delayed due to others who are behind.