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A comment on Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64. Parent comment

Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by chmod600 on Sunday January 02, 2022 @07:12PM (#29775662)
Been a while since I read it, but I seem to remember a false sense of confidence (caused by belief in a normal distribution) being a major theme.

Regardless, we should be skeptical of the assumption that we're dealing with a normal distribution.

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Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by richardw on Sunday January 02, 2022 @11:35PM (#29777370)
Yeah I think he used the word intuition. Exactly same insight though. I think “recency” is the bias that causes our view that tomorrow will be pretty similar to today. I’ve noticed it in myself, for sure. Market at X? Yup that seems rational. Hard to imagine the market at 2X or 1/2X. Bitcoin blew my mind during the ultra-growth phases.
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