Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by leni536 on Sunday January 02, 2022 @12:27PM (#29770896)

That's not how it works. For a geometric distribution with p=1/80 the mean or expected value is indeed 80.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution

Your gun example has a uniform distribution between 1 and 80 with an expected value of roughly 40 if you don't spin the chamber each time between pulling the trigger. If you spin it each time, then it's again the geometric distribution and the expected value is 80.

If you don't spin the chamber between each time, then each time you pull the trigger the probability of dying at that round is not 1/80, the probability goes up and up at each round, it's only 1/80 on the first round.

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Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by capitalsigma on Sunday January 02, 2022 @12:36PM (#29771035)

"evenly distributed" implies uniform distribution

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Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by notfbi on Sunday January 02, 2022 @01:52PM (#29772160)

To be fair, they said the risks are evenly distributed, not that deaths are.

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Re:Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among p... by adverbly on Sunday January 02, 2022 @12:56PM (#29771388)

I had the same initial thought, but this isn't quite a perfect model... that distribution averaging assumes that the only factor at play is covid... but there are other chances of death with highly irregular probability distributions as a function of age... with other nonlinear weightings as a function of age you could get pretty different numbers in the end...

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