Re:The Olkiluoto 3 EPR plant unit started up
by fuoqi on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @04:50AM
(#29635737)
Note that in my comment $25 MWh was only about OPEX (fuel cost, personnel, etc.), while your cost includes CAPEX, interest, and probably payments to a decommission fund. The number is based on 2013 estimate of the US Department of Energy (IIRC at the time it was $23 MWh), so it may be indeed different for ERP. Though if it's sufficiently higher than OPEX of the old US reactors, then I would say there is a problem with the ERP design.
Re:The Olkiluoto 3 EPR plant unit started up
by Gwypaas on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @05:08AM
(#29635823)
Well, no one is going to make an investment calculation on only OPEX. Lazard puts the average marginal cost for fully depreciated reactors at $29/MWh.
There in lies the issue, the total cost for newly built solar and wind is lower than the OPEX of existing plants.
Re:The Olkiluoto 3 EPR plant unit started up
by fuoqi on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @05:26AM
(#29635919)
I was answering the GP question with a rough estimate based on simplistic calculations, not building a full blown business model for the reactor in question.
Re:The Olkiluoto 3 EPR plant unit started up
by Gwypaas on Tuesday December 21, 2021 @05:40AM
(#29636022)
Well, saying it's an easy profit for 40 years seems like a too certain conclusion then?
On a yearly basis these are the average wholesale prices in Finland:
2020 - €28,02 /MWh
2019 - €44,04 /MWh
2018 - €46,80 /MWh
2017 - €33,19 /MWh
2016 - €32,45 /MWh
2015 - €29,66 /MWh
From that we can see is that the average price during the years was about equal to the OPEX we've seen from several sources. Other years you might make some back compared to OPEX.
https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/services/power-market-data-ser...
https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-...
For Hinkley Point C, another EPR we have the following, a guaranteed strike price of $140/MWh.
EDF has negotiated a guaranteed fixed price – a "strike price" – for electricity from Hinkley Point C of £92.50/MWh (in 2012 prices),[25][83] which will be adjusted (linked to inflation – £106/MWh by 2021[77]) during the construction period and over the subsequent 35 years tariff period. The base strike price could fall to £89.50/MWh if a new plant at Sizewell is also approved.[25][83] High consumer prices for energy will hit the poorest consumers hardest according to the Public Accounts Committee.[86]
In July 2016, the National Audit Office estimated that due to falling energy costs, the additional cost to consumers of 'future top-up payments under the proposed HPC CfD had increased from £6.1 billion in October 2013, when the strike price was agreed, to £29.7 billion'.[87][88] In July 2017, this estimate rose to £50 billion, or 'more than eight times the 2013 estimate'.[9]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_...