Yes, just based on that it should go up, but there's a huge difference about it increasing at 0.5% per annum and 1.5% per annum, and it's not going to go up monotonically, which is the difference between your long run graph and the latest BLS announcement.

In certain situations, when an economy is mismanaged, it will go down for prolonged periods of time, but again one year changes are not a significant trend. But this article about worker pay and inflation is not about long term trends, but recent (since 2020) trends.