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Re:Ask HN: Are most of us developers lying about how much wo... by echelon on Thursday December 16, 2021 @06:07PM (#29585268)
How large should your earnings be for FIRE?

250K? 1M? 4M?

How can you model stock investments in a way that your capital does not diminish as you withdrawal?

Re:Ask HN: Are most of us developers lying about how much wo... by medvezhenok on Thursday December 16, 2021 @09:44PM (#29587060)
There is a subreddit dedicated to answering those questions:

https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq

Re:Ask HN: Are most of us developers lying about how much wo... by icedchai on Friday December 17, 2021 @12:28AM (#29588194)
Look into the 4% rule. Once you have 25 to 30x your yearly expenses invested, you’ll be in the right ballpark.
Re:Ask HN: Are most of us developers lying about how much wo... by oakfr on Friday December 17, 2021 @03:56AM (#29589621)
The 4% rule is wildly optimistic. You're assuming that there exists an investment that:

- is 100% liquid - will return 4% consistently over decades - every single year - post-tax - post-inflation

Good luck finding that one.

So that's why I am saying that the FIRE theory is a theory. A much more realistic number is 2% (and I am still being optimistic here). That means that for someone who needs $5K/month (not insane if you want to have kids), you need $5K x 12 months x 50 = $3M. To get that sum post-tax, you need roughly $5M of income somehow. The set of people who make that amount early enough in their career is very limited.

Re:Ask HN: Are most of us developers lying about how much wo... by icedchai on Friday December 17, 2021 @08:25AM (#29591751)
You may want to look into it more. You don't need consistent returns, you need 4% yearly returns on average over a long time period. Looking at historical returns for a broad index fund (like VTSAX), this is very achievable. However, 4% may still be aggressive. This is why I am personally targeting closer to 3%.